The 0.3 second reality: Why surveys miss how people actually buy

Picture this: You’re on the couch after work, aimlessly scrolling, when a 15-second video stops you mid-scroll—suddenly you’re watching a skincare routine you never knew you needed. A few taps later, that $47 serum is in your cart.  

This is how real purchase decisions happen today—fast, emotional, and completely unconscious. But here’s the problem: traditional market research still asks people to take surveys and predict what they’ll do in situations they’ve never experienced. 

Surveys only capture how people think they think and decide, while social media taps into how people actually think and decide. 

System 1 vs system 2 decision making 

System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional.

It’s what your Zillenial target audience would call the “no thoughts, just vibes” reaction when they instinctively add a product to their cart or wishlist; the instant “yes” when you see a product placement in a video; the immediate skip when an ad feels off-brand; the insta-follow to an account just because the aesthetic clicks.  

System 2 is slow, deliberate, and analytical.

It’s when your target audience opens 12 browser tabs to compare skincare ingredients before buying that $47 serum. It also happens when someone sits down to take a survey. Suddenly, they’re in feedback mode, carefully considering each question, trying to give thoughtful answers, and predicting what they might do in hypothetical scenarios. 

System 1 decides. System 2 explains. Traditional research gets it backwards. 

How emotions drive purchase decisions

Harvard Business School professor Gerald Zaltman has found that 95% of our purchase decisions take place in the subconscious mind, driven by emotional responses. And research from Cambridge shows that consumers can make decisions in as little as a third of a second—faster than you can consciously process what you're even looking at.  

When you see that skincare routine on TikTok, your brain has already decided you want it before you've even registered the price, ingredients, or brand name. The emotional "yes" happens in 0.3 seconds. Only afterward does your brain rationalize: "I do need better skincare" or "It's actually good value." 

This emotional-first, rational-second pattern is what drives purchases. Nike doesn't sell shoes by listing technical specifications. They sell an identity, a feeling, a split-second moment where you see yourself as the person who wears those shoes. The feature comparisons come later, if at all. 

This is exactly where surveys miss the mark. They ask System 2 to predict what System 1 will do, creating a disconnect between how we think we decide and how we actually decide. 

Why survey responses don’t match real behavior 

When people take surveys, they're not scrolling through their feed deciding whether to buy that serum. They're sitting at their laptop, coffee in hand, thinking carefully about each question.

They're performing the role of "thoughtful survey respondent," which creates distortions through several biases: 

• Social desirability bias leads people to present idealized versions of themselves. Ask someone if they shop sustainably, and they'll likely say yes—even if they regularly choose the cheaper, less sustainable option. In surveys, people become who they want to be, not who they are when they’re adding items to their cart at 11pm. 
• Recall bias is when people can't accurately recall past decisions, so their brain fills in the gaps. Ask someone about concert tickets they bought when they heard their favorite band was headlining, and suddenly it becomes a “nostalgic investment.” When you ask why they purchased something, you're not getting the real story—you're getting the version their brain created afterward to make sense of their 0.3-second decision. 
• Hypothetical bias is the gap between saying you’d donate to a charity and actually opening your wallet when asked. Without real stakes, context, or consequences, people predict behavior that sounds reasonable but doesn’t match what they actually do when the time comes. 

This matters because you're not just getting inaccurate data. You're getting data about an entirely different decision-making process than the one your customers actually use.

Social media: System 1 in its natural habitat 

When people scroll social media, they're in System 1 mode. 

They're relaxed, their guard is down, and they're not trying to make decisions—they're just letting content flow past them. 

In this natural state, everything happens instantly: 

• A video either stops the scroll in 0.3 seconds or it doesn't 
• Product desire hits before rationale kicks in 
• And brand connections form faster than you can say “like, follow, share” 

This is where real purchase decisions happen before people even realize it. The impulse buy, the viral moment that drives clicks, the brand awareness that builds over time—it all starts with System 1 reactions in the space people feel completely natural: social media. 

Surveys: System 2 overthinking 

The moment you ask, "Would you consider purchasing this product?" you've pulled someone out of natural decision-making and into System 2 thinking.

Survey respondents know they're being evaluated. They're trying to be helpful and give "smart" answers. Or, they’re putting their best foot forward and aren’t being completely honest with you. 

In this survey state, everything becomes distorted: 

• People predict future behavior based on their ideal self, not their real habits 

• Social desirability kicks in (“I always buy sustainable products”).  

• Hypothetical scenarios feel risk-free, so people commit to things they’d never actually buy 

• Context disappears—no algorithm, no feed, and no external influences except incentives to take the survey 

This is where traditional market research operates: in controlled environments removed from the rich, messy context where real decisions happen. The “let me think about it” responses. The carefully weighed pros and cons. None of them reflect the split-second reality of how your customers actually make purchase decisions. 

Why the disconnect between surveys vs. real consumer behavior matters more than ever 

Consumer behavior and market trends move faster than research methods can keep up.

TikTok trends emerge and fade in weeks. Viral moments can make or break a brand’s success overnight. Your audience discovers, evaluates, and purchases products in the time it takes to write one survey question. 

Meanwhile, surveys spend months understanding behaviors that have already shifted. By the time results are compiled, consumers have already moved onto three new trends, and two of them are set to ship overnight. 

Testing in the wild is actually different 

The gap between survey responses and real consumer behavior comes down to environment.

Testing in the wild places your research directly into the feeds where decisions take place, helping brands: 

• Capture real reactions at scale. The average concept test might evaluate 10 ideas with a closed group of a few hundred respondents over several weeks. Testing in the wild can analyze 60+ concepts across millions of behavioral data points in just 2 weeks.  
• Reach audiences more cost-effectively. Testing in real world environments is 10x more cost effective. While traditional research pays premium rates to recruit specific demographics through panels, testing in the wild lets you reach both broad and niche audiences at scale on meta for a fraction of the cost. 
• Bridge the say-do gap. Instead of asking "Would you consider this product?" you learn what people actually do when they encounter it in their feeds. No incentives, no bias—just real world behavior in real time. 

Orchard vs. Surveys: Test where decisions happen

While surveys tell you what people think they’ll do, Orchard shows you exactly what stops the scroll and drives action.