How digital behaviors predict in-store consumer behavior

Retailers have spent years trying to connect the dots between what consumers do online and what they buy in stores. Today, we know the answer: Digital behaviors don’t just influence in-store purchases, they predict them. Search history, app usage, and social media engagement leave digital breadcrumbs offering sharp insight into what consumers will do once they walk through the doors of a store. 

This presents a massive opportunity. Companies that learn to read these signals can stay one step ahead of consumer demand, optimize in-store experiences, and make smarter marketing and merchandising decisions. It's a shift that requires new ways of thinking. 

The digital-in-store connection is real and quantifiable  

Plenty of studies confirm what your gut may already tell you, that online activity is deeply tied to offline shopping. According to Profitero, 80% of US shoppers are influenced by digital touchpoints at some point on their purchase journey. Even shoppers who typically buy in-store get started online, with nearly half of those consumers researching products before setting out to the store. 

Deloitte puts a finer point on it. Digital interactions now influence 56 cents of every dollar spent in-store. More than half of in-store spending is shaped by what happens online. If you only measure what's happening at the register, you won’t see the bigger picture. 

Digital touchpoints as leading indicators 

Online behavior isn’t just a warm-up to a purchase. It’s a predictor of intent. Here's where the signals are strongest: 

• Search behavior predicts store visits 
  Consumers are researching products, comparing prices, and reading reviews long before they show up in person. That search intent data can help retailers forecast demand and customize in-store promotions accordingly. It’s not just about showing up in search results anymore. It’s about using that intent to shape real-world experiences.
• Mobile app usage drives purchase intent
  Your app isn’t just a digital brochure. It’s a conversion engine. Shoppers who use a brand’s app to browse inventory, check availability, or manage loyalty rewards are far more likely to complete purchases in-store. App engagement signals high intent, and smart retailers are paying close attention.
• Social media engagement reflects purchase likelihood 
  A like or comment may seem small, but it speaks volumes. When someone interacts with branded content, it often signals serious interest. According to eMarketer, most US social media users (67%) say they’re likely to research a product on these platforms before buying it.  If you're not monitoring what people are saying and how they’re reacting on social, you're missing another valuable window into consumer behavior.
• Digital ads influence in-store purchases 
  Omnichannel strategy isn’t just a buzzword. Cooler Screens found that 79% of shoppers say in-store retail media and digital ads positively impact their shopping experience, and 82% find in-store digital ads memorable. Done right, your digital campaigns don’t just drive clicks, they drive carts.  

How Brands Can Capitalize on Digital-to-Physical Signals 

Understanding the connection is one thing. Acting on it is another. 

Here are four moves smart brands are making: 

• Use search and browsing data to forecast demand
  Anticipate what consumers will want before they even walk in and personalize promotions to align with trending searches. 
• Build seamless omnichannel experiences
  Make it easy for shoppers to move from online to in-store. Unified apps, consistent messaging, and real-time inventory updates are no longer optional–they’re expected. 
• Tap into social insights for real-time insights
  Use social media as a digital lab to observe real behavior and refine product features, messaging, or in-store strategies based on how customers engage online.
• Invest in geo-targeted marketing
  Use location data to meet shoppers in their moment of decision. Geo-targeted ads can drive last-mile influence and in-store traffic when it matters most.  

The future: test, learn, apply 

One of the most exciting applications of digital behavior is its role in rapid experimentation. Social and digital environments give brands the chance to test product messaging, creative concepts, and even pricing strategies in near real time. You can learn what resonates with your audience before a product ever hits the shelf. 

Test which campaigns drive foot traffic by running A/B tests on social. Launch targeted content to gauge how a new product format resonates with younger audiences. These digital environments are fast, flexible, and rich with insights and the smartest brands are using them to de-risk in-store decisions. 

At Orchard, we’re helping companies turn digital signals into strategic action. From real-time experimentation to long-term retail planning, we believe the future of in-store success starts online.